The line is the weather across all 8 streams — the overall state of financial market behavior over time.
The markers identify moments when the streams started imitating each other. Each marker is labeled with how many streams were in sync at that moment.
Progression from low participation (3 of 8) to full integration (8 of 8) tells the story of how independence broke down.
Normally these 8 streams move somewhat independently — they each respond to their own drivers. When they start imitating each other, something structural is coordinating them. The math detects this.
Synchronized systems amplify shocks. When all streams move together, a disturbance in one propagates instantly to all. The value is in knowing when you've entered this state — before the disturbance arrives.
A stream can dip in any year for many reasons — transient shocks, recovery cycles, measurement noise. The framework does not trigger on first observations. It accumulates evidence using change-point detection (CUSUM) and only commits when a structural break is sustained long enough to differentiate from noise. Germany cratered earlier and recovered — those were not signals. By 1936, after years of sustained divergence, the cumulative evidence crossed the detection threshold and the signal fired. The math waits until it's certain.
Phoenix does not tell you whether the coordination is positive or negative for any stakeholder. It marks the moments and the progression. Interpretation belongs to domain experts.
If composite coherence rises AND the streams decouple (imitation count drops back) — recovery.
If composite coherence rises but streams stay in sync (imitation holds) — lock-in state.
If composite coherence stays low and streams stay in sync — continued integration.
The line is the weather across all 6 streams — the overall state of geopolitical-adjacent market behavior over time.
The markers identify moments when the streams started imitating each other. Each marker is labeled with how many streams were in sync at that moment.
Progression from low participation (3 of 6) to full integration (6 of 6) tells the story of how independence broke down.
Normally these 6 streams move somewhat independently — they each respond to their own drivers. When they start imitating each other, something structural is coordinating them. The math detects this.
Synchronized systems amplify shocks. When all streams move together, a disturbance in one propagates instantly to all. The value is in knowing when you've entered this state — before the disturbance arrives.
Phoenix does not tell you whether the coordination is positive or negative for any stakeholder. It marks the moments and the progression. Interpretation belongs to domain experts.
If composite coherence rises AND the streams decouple (imitation count drops back) — recovery.
If composite coherence rises but streams stay in sync (imitation holds) — lock-in state.
If composite coherence stays low and streams stay in sync — continued integration.
The line is the weather across all 6 streams — the overall state of energy sector behavior over time.
The markers identify moments when the streams started imitating each other. Each marker is labeled with how many streams were in sync at that moment.
Progression from low participation (3 of 6) to full integration (6 of 6) tells the story of how independence broke down.
Normally these 6 streams move somewhat independently — they each respond to their own drivers. When they start imitating each other, something structural is coordinating them. The math detects this.
Synchronized systems amplify shocks. When all streams move together, a disturbance in one propagates instantly to all. The value is in knowing when you've entered this state — before the disturbance arrives.
A stream can dip in any year for many reasons — transient shocks, recovery cycles, measurement noise. The framework does not trigger on first observations. It accumulates evidence using change-point detection (CUSUM) and only commits when a structural break is sustained long enough to differentiate from noise. Germany cratered earlier and recovered — those were not signals. By 1936, after years of sustained divergence, the cumulative evidence crossed the detection threshold and the signal fired. The math waits until it's certain.
Phoenix does not tell you whether the coordination is positive or negative for any stakeholder. It marks the moments and the progression. Interpretation belongs to domain experts.
If composite coherence rises AND the streams decouple (imitation count drops back) — recovery.
If composite coherence rises but streams stay in sync (imitation holds) — lock-in state.
If composite coherence stays low and streams stay in sync — continued integration.
Gold marker: Full integration moment — all streams in sync.
Blue marker: Phoenix signal — pattern detected before event.
Orange marker: Known event with standard direction.